Written by Kemal Öztürk, the former General Manager of Anadolu Agency, Turkey’s leading official news agency, this article delves into Turkey’s role in Syria and the ongoing developments.
The most important issue in Syria, a country with many ethnic identities, different beliefs, and religions, is what kind of governance structure it will have. With painful experiences from Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, and Afghanistan, Turkey took a very determined stance to prevent a similar chaotic structure from emerging. After all, in that chaos, it would be Turkey, with its 900 km border with Syria and nearly 4 million Syrian refugees, that would suffer the most.
The statements made by President Trump’s regarding President Erdoğan and Turkey caused a surprising impact, not only in Turkey but around the world:
“Nobody really knows who the real winner is, but I think Turkey won. Erdoğan is a very smart and tough guy… Assad was a butcher. We saw what he did to the children… The key to Syria is in Turkey’s hands.”
When Trump made these statements, I had just returned from Syria. I had visited almost all of the cities and then interviewed the new leader of the revolution, Ahmad al-Sharaa (Golani). In the television programs I participated in and on my social media accounts, I said, “There is a state mind in Syria, and that mind is neither the US, nor Israel, nor the UK. That state mind is Turkey on the ground.”
However, not many people discussed the details of what Turkey did in Syria and how it became so influential.
The Biggest Victim of the Syrian Civil War Became the Key Country
The biggest victim of the Syrian Civil War was Turkey. For 13 years, it received continuous waves of migration, and the number of Syrian refugees in the country exceeded 3.5 million. Paramilitary groups loyal to the Assad regime and the Mukhabarat carried out numerous bombing attacks in Turkey, leading to many casualties.
Iran and Assad sympathizers ran campaigns for years to undermine Erdoğan’s government. Due to the Syrian refugees, serious protests, debates, and conflicts erupted in many cities. In the last local elections, opposition parties campaigned on anti-migrant platforms, and Erdoğan’s party suffered significant losses, losing municipalities to the opposition.
Despite all of this, President Erdoğan rejected calls to forcibly send migrants back to Syria, supported them, and did not back down.
However, he did something more critical that went unnoticed: Erdoğan continued to invest in the Syrian opposition and within Syria.
Turkey Invested in Syria
Turkey launched several cross-border operations against PKK/YPG attacks from its borders and created safe zones. Through the Astana and Sochi agreements, Turkey helped opposition groups establish governance, provide security, and create an economic cycle in cities such as Jarabulus, Azez, Afrin, and Al-Bab.
In these cities, Turkey built secondary schools and university buildings. It set up systems to provide services like education, health, municipality, and security to Syrians, offering support.
For example, the roads in Al-Bab were constructed by the Gaziantep municipality, and health facilities were established by the Ministry of Health. Many NGOs from Turkey carried out aid activities, cultural and educational programs.
Turkey created a flexible ground for economic and social relations between northern Syria and Turkey. For this reason, all the necessary supplies for communication, transportation, food, health, and education in that region were allowed to be sourced from Turkey.
Turkey also implemented a project to ensure the security of northern Syrian cities. It supported the establishment, military training, and weapon supply for the Syrian National Army (SNA). Police forces were established in cities, and Turkey supported the provision of security through coordinators.
After a while, the Free Syrian Army controlled an area of thousands of square kilometers, where millions of people lived. When the operation against Assad began on November 17, the Free Syrian Army started to take areas held by YPG/PKK in the north.
Critical Issue: Relations with HTS in Idlib
When Aleppo fell to the Assad regime in 2016 and a massive wave of refugees headed toward Turkey, I was in Syria. I had seen the tents and makeshift buildings established in the rural areas of Idlib. At that time, Idlib was a small place that was not well-known. However, it received such a huge influx of people from Aleppo and surrounding areas that it quickly became a city with over a million inhabitants. This was not enough, and in 2017, massive migrations from Hama, 2018 from Damascus, and Dara also took place, and people settled in Idlib. According to UN reports, the population of Idlib today has reached 4.1 million.
Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) had been in Idlib for a long time. However, due to the attacks by Hezbollah, the Assad regime, and Russia in Aleppo, Hama, Damascus, and Dara, they moved all their military presence to Idlib, thus creating a major power base there.
Since Turkey was the guarantor state in Idlib under the Astana and Sochi agreements, it established relations with the region. However, there were clashes between some factions of the Syrian National Army and HTS in Idlib. Turkey therefore classified HTS as a terrorist organization, considering it a continuation of Al-Nusra.
But due to its status as a guarantor state in Idlib and the presence of the Free Syrian Army there, Turkey had to engage with the administration in Idlib, and the transformation of HTS began.
How HTS Moved Away from Radicalism and Transformed
Idlib was frequently bombed and blockaded by the Damascus regime and Russia. Therefore, HTS had no choice but to get closer to Turkey for the survival of the 4 million-strong city. Due to attacks by foreign elements within HTS and clashes with the SNA, Turkey insisted on the removal of foreign elements and the centralization of the organization.
HTS leader Golani, with a pragmatic perspective, welcomed these suggestions and ensured the removal of foreign militants and extreme elements from HTS. Sometimes conflicts occurred, and at other times, he arrested these individuals.
During this period, HTS established close relations with Turkey for the governance of public and social administration in Idlib. Turkey’s primary motivation was to prevent a new wave of migration from Idlib as a result of attacks by the Assad regime. However, as time passed and Turkey observed HTS’s transformation, relations were further strengthened.
The greatest impact was in the economic cycle. Electricity lines were laid through Turkey, and many systems began to operate. Subscription systems were set up with payments made via banks, and thus, the banking sector was revived.
Kemal Öztürk December 22, 2024
