The strategic moves of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in foreign affairs are under close scrutiny by Western media. Recently, an article published by the U.S.-based right-leaning think tank, the Hudson Institute, brought Turkey’s relations with Russia and the West under the microscope.
On February 17, French President Emmanuel Macron gathered leaders from Denmark, Italy, Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, the United Kingdom, the European Commission, and NATO to reaffirm support for Ukraine. Notably absent was Turkey, NATO’s second-largest military power. In an article titled “Turkey’s Role in Containing Russia,” published by the Hudson Institute, Turkey was referred to as “The Elephant Not in the Room.” Such articles have become increasingly popular in the West, as Western media closely monitors Turkey’s geopolitical maneuvers, often highlighting Ankara’s “imperial moves.” The article, authored by Zineb Riboua, states:
“While Europe negotiates and the U.S. involves Russia in Saudi Arabia, Turkey has been maneuvering to reshape the strategic theater. By hosting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Ankara, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sent a clear signal that Turkey remains a key player in shaping Ukraine’s future. Zelenskyy reinforced this by stating, ‘The European Union, Turkey, and the United Kingdom… should be involved in negotiations and the development of necessary security guarantees for the fate of our side of the world with America.’”
Turkey’s Broader Geopolitical Competition with Russia
For Ankara, Ukraine is not an isolated conflict but part of a broader geopolitical struggle with Moscow. Turkey and Russia have clashed on multiple fronts, from Libya to Syria and the Caucasus, and their rivalry is now expanding into Africa. While Turkey extends its political, military, and economic reach on the continent, Russia is trying to solidify its paramilitary footprint. As Wagner-linked mercenaries operate in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, Turkey engages in state partnerships, defense contracts, and infrastructure agreements in the Sahel, offering what Moscow’s mercenary-focused model cannot. Meanwhile, in the Red Sea, Turkey deepens its presence in Sudan, while Russia eyes a naval base in the country.
The Ankara-Moscow dynamic is a multifaceted balancing act—cooperative when convenient, confrontational when necessary, and always driven by strategic calculation. However, particularly in Syria and Libya, Turkey has significantly exposed Russia’s weaknesses.
In Syria, Turkey has repeatedly clashed with Russian-backed forces. For instance, during the Syrian Civil War, Turkish troops thwarted a Russian-Assad offensive in Idlib. However, Russia’s failure to save Bashar al-Assad’s regime and the Kremlin’s underestimation of Israeli attacks on Hezbollah and Iranian proxies, which are crucial for Moscow’s control, have increasingly exposed the Russian military’s position in Syria.
Critically, the collapse of Russia’s once-formidable Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) system in Syria, designed to deter NATO operations, has altered the operational landscape. While Russia can no longer maintain robust air defense coverage, Turkey enjoys much greater operational freedom in Syria. Meanwhile, Turkey’s influence over Syria’s current government, especially as Russia withdraws its military presence from the Hmeimim Air Base and its main Mediterranean base in Tartus, provides Ankara with additional leverage over Moscow.
In Libya, Turkey’s military intervention proved decisive. By supporting the United Nations-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) against the Russian-backed Libyan National Army (LNA), Turkey forced Russian-backed militias to retreat, dismantled Wagner’s operational stronghold, and changed the course of the war. This shift not only limited Russian influence in North Africa but also solidified Turkey’s long-term presence in the region. As evidence of this growing influence, the African Union recently announced that Libya will host the Africa-Turkey Summit in 2026, underscoring Turkey’s deepening strategic foothold at Moscow’s expense.
Bridging the Gap: Why the West Needs to Engage with Turkey
Turkey is not just projecting power from the Mediterranean to the Caspian; it is undergoing a strategic restructuring, disrupting Russia’s operational calculations, and forcing Vladimir Putin into a reactive stance.
In this context, hosting Zelenskyy helped Turkey maximize its influence over both the East and the West. First, Turkey’s strategic distance from European affairs strengthens Ankara’s position in Moscow, as Russia sees Turkey as a neutral player it can engage with, free from EU constraints. Second, Turkey’s military autonomy, particularly in drone warfare and arms production, aligns with former U.S. President Donald Trump’s push for self-reliance within NATO. Trump openly praised Turkey following its military successes in Syria. Third, despite its relations with Moscow, Turkey remains one of Ukraine’s strongest supporters in defending its territorial integrity and countering Russian expansionism.
Supporting Ukraine limits Russia’s expansion in the Black Sea and strengthens Turkey’s strategic position. From Ankara’s perspective, a resilient and sovereign Ukraine is a crucial check against Russian dominance in the region. Unlike many European countries hesitant to support Kyiv, Turkey acted decisively. Days after Russia’s full-scale invasion, Turkey enforced the Montreux Convention, closing the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits to Russian warships. While framed as neutrality, this move severely restricted Moscow’s ability to reinforce its Black Sea Fleet.
On the battlefield, Turkey equipped Ukraine with one of its most effective weapon systems: the Bayraktar TB2 drone, which had already proven decisive in Libya. These drones helped Ukraine destroy Russian armored units and naval assets, shifted the balance in key battles, and allowed Turkey to influence the war without direct military intervention.
Turkey has wielded its strategic influence with significant impact, arming Ukraine with one hand while engaging Russia with the other. As the U.S. and Europe debate their next moves and fine-tune aid packages, Turkey has kept Russia on edge across multiple fronts—a tactic Western capitals have either been unable or unwilling to employ.
Macron’s Paris summit showcased European unity but revealed a strategic miscalculation. Turkey’s role in countering Russia, particularly in NATO’s southern neighborhood, is too significant to ignore. Underestimating Turkey is not just shortsighted but a strategic failure. If Europe is serious about strengthening Ukraine and keeping Russia in check, it must engage with Turkey as a key strategic partner.
Meanwhile, Turkey is not waiting for any consensus. Ankara will continue to exploit gaps in Russia’s geostrategic posture to advance its own interests. The West must recognize Turkey’s strategic importance and seize the opportunity to collaborate on shared priorities before time runs out.
