Geopolitical Futures highlights Turkey’s geopolitical opportunities and President Erdoğan’s leadership in strengthening its regional influence.
According to a recent analysis by Geopolitical Futures titled “Turkey’s Time to Rise,” published on 4 August 2025, Turkey is poised to emerge as a significant regional power, leveraging its strategic location, growing military capabilities, and economic potential. Under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s leadership, Turkey’s pursuit of “strategic autonomy” is transforming the country into a key player in the Middle East, the Caucasus, and the Mediterranean.
Turkey’s Geopolitical Opportunities
Geopolitical Futures emphasizes Turkey’s unique position as a bridge between Europe, the Middle East, and the Caucasus, which provides a strategic advantage for expanding its influence. The analysis references George Friedman’s prediction in his book The Next 100 Years, where he foresaw Turkey, alongside Japan and Poland, rising as a major global power in the 21st century. The current global and regional environment offers Turkey a prime opportunity to realize this potential, supported by its military advancements and economic prospects.
The article highlights several factors driving Turkey’s rise:
- Russia’s Focus on Ukraine: Russia’s preoccupation with the Ukraine conflict has created opportunities for Turkey to expand its influence in the Black Sea and the Caucasus. Turkey’s support for Azerbaijan during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war shifted regional dynamics, strengthening Turkey’s position in the Caucasus.
- U.S. Strategic Withdrawal: The U.S.’s reduced presence in the Middle East has opened a window for Turkey to assume a leadership role in the region.
- Eastern Mediterranean Ambitions: Turkey’s military presence in Libya and its energy exploration efforts in the Eastern Mediterranean have bolstered its regional clout. Recent improvements in relations with Greece further support these strategic moves.
Erdoğan’s Strategic Autonomy
President Erdoğan’s foreign policy, centered on “strategic autonomy,” is a key focus of the analysis. Despite being a NATO member, Turkey has cultivated ties with Russia and China, diversifying its international partnerships. This balanced approach has positioned Turkey as a regional powerhouse:
- Ukraine-Russia Mediation: Turkey has played a pivotal role in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, supplying Ukraine with Bayraktar TB2 drones while maintaining diplomatic and economic ties with Russia. Its mediation in the Black Sea grain corridor deal has enhanced Turkey’s diplomatic stature.
- Middle East and Caucasus Influence: Turkey’s military engagements in Syria and Libya, including support for the UN-recognized government in Libya, have solidified its influence in the Mediterranean.
- Defense Industry Growth: Turkey’s domestic defense industry, particularly its advancements in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and warships, has gained global recognition. According to a Financial Times report cited in the analysis, Turkey’s defense sector is contributing to Europe’s efforts to replenish its military stockpiles.
- Diplomatic Outreach: Turkey’s expanding diplomatic and economic ties in Africa and Central Asia, alongside efforts to normalize relations with Greece, are strengthening its global presence and reinforcing its role within NATO.
“Century of Turkey” Vision
Erdoğan’s “Century of Turkey” vision is highlighted as a roadmap for establishing Turkey as a more independent and influential global actor. This vision includes strengthening Turkey’s role within NATO, enhancing its regional mediation capabilities, and leveraging its defense industry to achieve economic and strategic independence.
Conclusion:
A Rising PowerGeopolitical Futures underscores that Turkey’s strategic location, military advancements, and bold foreign policy under Erdoğan’s leadership position it to capitalize on regional opportunities. The country’s growing diplomatic and military influence is paving the way for Turkey to emerge as a leading regional power, with the potential to play a more significant role on the global stage.Source: Geopolitical Futures, “Turkey’s Time to Rise,” 4 August 2025, https://geopoliticalfutures.com
