The Wall Street Journal, widely regarded as one of the most prestigious newspapers in the world, is also known as the voice of the American business community and conservative circles. The publication, which has had ties to the Republican Party and has at times supported the incoming Donald Trump administration, published a comprehensive news analysis yesterday, authored by senior reporter Yaroslav Trofimov. The report also highlights Yuli-Yoel Edelstein, an Israeli politician and former minister. A member of the Likud party, Edelstein has previously served as Minister of Immigrant Absorption and Minister of Information and Diaspora.
In the aftermath of Bashar al-Assad’s regime collapse, the power struggle in Syria has intensified the rivalry between Israel and Turkey. With Iran’s influence waning in the region, the strategic vacuum left behind is drawing both countries’ interests. According to an in-depth analysis by Wall Street Journal’s senior correspondent Yaroslav Trofimov, this competition is rapidly evolving into a major point of tension, with the potential to impact both regional and global politics.
The article suggests that in the wake of Assad’s downfall, both Turkey and Israel are emerging as the strongest contenders for influence in Syria. However, the war in Gaza has further exacerbated the already fragile relations between the two countries. Both nations are seeking to expand their influence in Syria, a development that could bring them into direct opposition both within Syria and on a broader regional level.
“Turkish officials want a successful new Syria, and they believe that Turkey must control this situation. This is why they are concerned that the Israelis could ruin everything,” says Gönül Tol of the Middle East Institute, highlighting Ankara’s growing concerns about Israel’s increasing influence in Syria.
Shifting Power Dynamics and Interests in Syria
With Assad’s collapse, the power dynamics in Syria have been rapidly shifting. Turkey, leveraging its historical ties to the Ottoman Empire, is aiming to establish significant influence over the country. This brings Turkey into direct confrontation with its regional rivals, including Iran.
However, according to the article, Israel’s interests in Syria extend beyond just countering Iran’s presence. Israel views Turkey’s growing influence in the region, particularly President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s support for groups like Hamas, as a potential long-term threat. Trofimov writes, “Israeli officials are worried that a Sunni Islamist bloc led by Turkey could eventually pose as serious a threat as Iran.”
These fears are amplified by the presence of groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which are aligned with Turkey in Syria. The role of HTS leader Abu Mohammed al Jawlani remains controversial, with his past connections to Al-Qaeda and ISIS raising concerns about his intentions. “Jawlani endorsed the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack,” Trofimov notes, underlining the growing security anxieties in Israel.
Israel and Turkey’s Tense Alliances
As both nations strive to increase their influence in Syria, the competition has taken on ideological and strategic dimensions. Israel argues that its military and political presence in Syria is vital for regional stability and security. Meanwhile, Turkey, under Erdoğan’s leadership, is determined to assert itself as the dominant power in the Middle East.
Israeli Knesset Foreign and Defense Committee Chairman Yuli Edelstein has acknowledged that relations with Turkey have reached a very low point, stating, “Turkey’s relations with us are definitely at a very bad stage, but they can always get worse.” This scenario, as the two countries’ military presence in Syria overlaps, could potentially lead to further escalations.
The rivalry also plays into broader regional alliances and interests. Countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, wary of Turkey’s rising Islamist political influence, are watching closely. Meanwhile, Israel sees the Turkish push for leadership in the Middle East as a destabilizing factor in terms of regional security. The article also mentions the U.S.’s support for Kurdish groups, further complicating Turkey’s relationships and U.S. foreign policy.
U.S. and Israel Strategies: Enemies or Allies?
The Wall Street Journal piece also touches on how the Trump administration’s policies might have influenced the rising rivalry. While both Israel and Turkey are among the U.S.’s most significant allies in the region, their diverging paths have created a complex situation. Jonathan Schanzer comments, “Turkey has long since become a rogue state within the Western alliance,” referring to its cooperation with Russia and its intervention in Syria, which complicates U.S. foreign policy in the region.
However, some experts argue that Israel’s strategic interests in Syria may prevent a direct military clash with Turkey. Eyal Zisser from Tel Aviv University notes, “Turkey is not trying to destroy Israel, it’s not developing nuclear weapons, it’s not sending thousands of militiamen into Syria, and it’s not arming Hezbollah.” He suggests that a Syria dominated by Turkey would likely be more beneficial for Israel than one controlled by Iran.
Israel’s Security Concerns: Golan Heights and the Risk in Syria
The article also highlights Israel’s growing security concerns regarding the Golan Heights. This region, which has been under Israeli control since 1967, faces increased pressure from Turkey’s presence in Syria. Israeli Foreign Minister’s statements have fueled tensions, with Israel perceiving Turkey’s long-standing military presence in Syria since 2016 as an occupation.
“Turkey’s current occupation in Syria is threatening Israel’s security in the Golan Heights even further. The policies in Syria make Turkey’s strategic intervention even more complicated,” Turkish officials argue, stressing the need to counter Israel’s military maneuvers.
Conclusion: Is a Conflict Likely?
The article concludes that while a direct conflict between Israel and Turkey is unlikely at this point, the power struggle in Syria could continue to escalate over the long term. Aydın Selcen states, “Ankara wins, and Israel wins. I don’t see an open conflict between them. That doesn’t really make sense.” He suggests that a direct military clash would be detrimental to both countries.
Nonetheless, Israel will continue to try to tilt the strategic balance in Syria in its favor, potentially leading to more tensions with Turkey as both countries seek to protect their regional security interests.
