James Jeffrey, the former U.S. Ambassador to Turkey and a distinguished expert on Middle Eastern geopolitics, has issued a critical warning regarding the United States’ ongoing support for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Jeffrey argues that America cannot afford to allow the SDF to remain as a “state within a state” in Syria.
The Opportunity for Peace in a Post-Assad Syria
In his commentary, Jeffrey emphasizes the significant shift in the regional dynamics following the collapse of the Assad regime and much of the Iranian-backed infrastructure in Syria. The fall of Assad, he claims, presents a rare opportunity to guide Syria towards a more peaceful future. However, this opportunity also comes with its risks, particularly regarding the YPG forces, which have gained control over vast territories in northern and northeastern Syria, including many Arab-majority areas.
The SDF’s Role in Syria and the U.S. Moral Obligation
Jeffrey stresses that while the SDF’s role has been indispensable in countering ISIS, the group’s ties to the PKK (the Kurdish separatist movement in Turkey) and its status as a de facto “state” in parts of Syria presents a serious challenge to regional stability. Washington, according to Jeffrey, must help transition the SDF from its current status as a militant force that operates with near-state authority into a political representative of the Syrian Kurds. This transition would require the SDF to sever its overt links with the PKK and shift away from its military role, eventually transitioning into a political party that operates within the framework of the Syrian state.
America’s Strategic Challenge: Balancing Counterterrorism and Geopolitical Interests
A key element of Jeffrey’s argument is that the U.S. cannot continue to use the SDF indefinitely as a counterterrorism partner in the region. “America cannot indefinitely prop up a Kurdish statelet inside Syria,” Jeffrey states. He points to the historical relationship between the SDF and the PKK as a major point of contention for Turkey, which views the SDF’s presence as a direct threat to its national security. For this reason, Turkey has launched several military incursions into Syria since 2016, targeting the SDF’s expansion along the border. Despite these tensions, the U.S. has maintained its support for the SDF, viewing the group as a critical partner in the fight against ISIS.
The Crumbling U.S.-SDF Alliance
However, Jeffrey argues that this support cannot be sustained indefinitely. “The U.S. must ensure that the YPG forces are not crushed militarily, but it must also make it clear that the Kurdish-led SDF cannot remain an autonomous entity within Syria’s borders,” he writes. Jeffrey insists that the U.S. should leverage its influence to encourage the SDF to negotiate with the Syrian government to gradually transition power in the northeast. This, according to Jeffrey, would involve coordinating with Damascus on key issues such as border security, oilfield management, and governance in the Arab-majority areas currently controlled by the SDF.
The Need for a Gradual Transition
The key to this transition, Jeffrey suggests, is a gradual shift in which the SDF becomes a political force rather than a military one, with its actions and governance aligning with the broader interests of the Syrian state. The U.S. can facilitate this process by urging the SDF to disarm PKK elements and work on normalizing relations with Syria’s national government. Jeffrey also advocates for the establishment of a buffer zone along the Turkish border, an agreement reached between the U.S. and Turkey in 2019, which could help manage tensions between the SDF and Turkey while giving the Syrian government time to regain control over its northeastern regions.
YPG Leaders’ Willingness to Transition
Jeffrey acknowledges that the Kurdish leaders appear to be willing to consider this transition, but he warns that the U.S. may be tempted to continue its support for the SDF out of sympathy for the Kurdish cause or a desire to counter the influence of Iran and Russia in the region. However, he argues that such a policy would ultimately lead to failure, both in Syria and in the broader Middle East.
The Changing Landscape in Syria: New Tensions Between YPG and Turkish Forces
The future of the U.S.-SDF alliance is further complicated by the ongoing changes in Syria. The Assad regime’s collapse and the increasing influence of opposition forces and Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) fighters in the region have created new challenges for U.S. policy. The SNA has already advanced into areas previously controlled by the SDF, such as Tal Rifaat and Manbij, which have significant Arab populations. Tensions between the Kurdish forces and the SNA could escalate into large-scale fighting, further complicating the situation.
U.S. Efforts to Manage Tensions and Maintain Support for the SDF
In response to these developments, the U.S. has recently attempted to manage tensions by freezing the conflict between Turkey and the SDF and reinforcing its support for the SDF against ISIS. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Secretary of State Antony Blinken have reaffirmed America’s commitment to the SDF, but Jeffrey cautions that this support should be temporary and that the U.S. must prepare for the inevitable transition toward a unified Syrian state. This, he argues, would include coordinating with the Syrian government, securing the return of territories controlled by the SDF, and ensuring that ISIS does not regain a foothold in the region.
Conclusion: The Need for a Clear U.S. Strategy and a Set Withdrawal Date
Jeffrey’s conclusion is clear: the next U.S. administration must take a more strategic approach. While continuing to support the SDF in the short term, the U.S. must announce a clear plan for the eventual withdrawal of American forces from Syria by 2026, absent a new agreement with the Syrian government. This would be a bold move, but one that could pave the way for a more stable and peaceful Syria in the long term. As Jeffrey puts it, “These are all recipes for failure, in Syria and the region. To counter them, the next administration should announce an eventual withdrawal of all forces from Syria, based on conditions, but no later than December 2026, absent a new agreement with Damascus.”
